FORTUNA was developed as a simplified (and free of charge to the end user) alternative to existing proprietary off-the-shelf tools.


It has been designed to produce all of the statistical outputs required for a MOD Investment Appraisal (IA) and business case submission (as described in JSP507). The tool is implemented in standard Excel (2003, 2007 & 2010) with Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and requires no additional add-ins to be installed.

Fortuna uses Monte Carlo simulation to perform uncertainty analysis applicable to any three point estimating approach. The tool can be used for both triangular and beta (PERT) distributions at varying levels of estimating confidence. The tool produces aggregated distribution samples using a fully integrated correlation matrix and performs sensitivity analysis utilising standardised rank correlation coefficients.